Bottom set - requires him to have 22 - highly possible, with six combinations.Top or middle set - requires Chad to have AA or JJ - nope, because he would have raised pre-flop with either of these hands.Straights, flushes or full houses - none of these are possible on this flop.The analysis is simple: Would Chad ever ship his entire stack with the action so far in this hand with anything weaker than 2-pair? (No!) If he has 2-pair or better (2P+), it doesn’t matter which exact hand he has I have one pair, and 2P+ destroys me.įor shits and giggles, let’s quickly explore the 2P+ options: More critically, it’s time for a quick pivot in my own emotional state, from “I’m about to win some chips” to “I have to let this go.” The emotional shift – for me, at least – is far more difficult than the analysis. Well, Chad doesn’t fold, and he doesn’t call either. I want to retain the betting lead, and am ambivalent as to whether he calls or folds. I’m ahead if Chad has A8 A7, A6, A5, A4, or A3.

Even if he has AT, I can easily represent AK/AQ, and he cannot as his pre-flop range is capped. Under that theory, Chad is either (A) firing a one-and-done type of bluff, hoping I don’t have an ace and might fold pocket pairs as strong as KK, or hoping I have an unpaired hand without an ace (which I’m less likely to have now that an ace appeared on this flop), or (B) leading with a weaker ace (AT is possible as the top of his Ax hands that limp/call pre-flop, where the rest of his pre-flop range can be ignored). Many experts default to a belief that leading into the pre-flop aggressor indicates weakness, a notion that is encouraged by Chad’s remark before betting. My pair of aces should be ahead here.Ĭhad says something, like “let’s see if you got any of that” and bets $25. He is not prone to lots of fancy plays or huge bluffs.įlop (pot = $60): AJ2 rainbow. He’s a good, thinking player, whose style isn’t near any of the extremes of the loose-tight or passive-aggressive scales. If one of them calls, I’ll have them isolated and out-of-position. If the limpers also fold, that’s a fine outcome. Therefore, I should attack! I raise to $25, hoping to get the button straddler to fold so I’ll be last to act for the remainder of the hand. A9o isn’t super strong, but it seems too good to fold. For purposes of this blog, I’ll call him “Chad.” One or two players limp in, and the player on my right also limps. There was a $5 live button straddle, and I was one seat to the right of the button. It’s a run of the mill private house game, with blinds of $1 and $2. Here’s an interesting poker hand from last night.

Poker two players with aa